29 May 2002 |

Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion |

Earthquake Research Committee |

Subcommittees for Long-term Evaluations and for |

for Evaluations of Strong Ground Motion |

**Preliminary Version of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map(Specific Area)**

In 'The Promotion of Earthquake Research - Comprehensive Basic Policies for the Promotion of Seismic Research through the Observation, Measurement, and Survey of Earthquakes -' (April 23, 1999; hereafter referred to 'Comprehensive Basic Policy'), Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion concluded that preparation of general seismic hazard maps covering the whole Japan should be promoted as a major subject of earthquake research today.

The Subcommittees for Long-term Evaluations and for Evaluations of Strong Ground Motion cooperated to prepare a preliminary version of a seismic hazard map for a specific area as the first step in preparations for producing seismic hazard maps that cover all of Japan, which are scheduled to be completed by the end of fiscal year 2004 (Heisei 16th). It is expected that persons concerned with disaster prevention and researchers will have extensive discussions with each other about the preparations considering the intended uses of these maps. These discussions should facilitate the preparation of seismic hazard maps for the entire country.

The seismic hazard maps are called probabilistic seismic hazard maps in this report because they are based on the probability of earthquake occurrence.

Preliminary Version of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map(Specific Area) (pdf 95KB)

- Fig.1a Range of preliminary version of probabilistic seismic hazard map (specific area)
- Fig.1b Distribution of site amplification factor
- Fig.2 Major active fault zones and earthquakes relating to the region for preliminary versions (probable source regions)
- Fig.3 Seismic intensity distribution map with Assumption of the Tokai Earthquake
- Fig.4 Distribution map of seismic intensity with Kanto Earthquake (Preliminary calculation)
- Fig.5a Distribution map of seismic intensity shaken by activity of the Itoigawa Shizuoka-kozosen fault zones (Hokubu and Chubu) (Preliminary calculation)
- Fig.5b Distribution map of seismic intensity shaken by activity of the Itoigawa Shizuoka-kozosen fault zone (Nambu) (Preliminary calculation)
- Fig.6a Probability of suffering a ground motion with seismic intensity >= 6 Lower
^{**}within 30 years^{*}here-after (Preliminary calculation) - Fig.6b Probability of suffering a ground motion with seismic intensity >= 5 Lower
^{***}within 30 years hereafter (Preliminary calculation) - Fig.7a Probability of suffering a ground motion with seismic intensity >= 6 Lower
^{**}within 30 years^{*}hereafter (Preliminary calculation ; the same as Fig.6a) - Fig.7b Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic intensity with a probability >= 3% within 30 years hereafter (Color-classified by seismic inten-sity; preliminary calculation)
- Fig.8a Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic intensity with a probability >= 5% within 50 years hereafter. (Color-classified by seismic intensity; preliminary calculation)
- Fig.8b Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic in-tensity with a probability >=10% within 50 years hereafter. (Color-classified by seismic intensity; preliminary calculation)
- Fig.8c Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic in-tensity with a probability >= 40% within 50 years hereafter. (Color-classified by seismic intensity; preliminary calculation)
- Fig.9 Probability of suffering a ground motion with seismic intensity >= 6 Lower within 30 years here-after. (Preliminary calculation; excluding Assumption of the Tokai Earthquake )
- Fig.10 Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic intensity with a probability >= 3% within 30 years hereafter. (Preliminary calculation; excluding Assumption of the Tokai Earthquake )
- Fig.11 Probability of suffering a ground motion with seismic intensity >= 6 Lower within 30 years hereaf-ter.(Preliminary calculation; for only characteristic earthquakes of the major 98 active fault zones)
- Fig.12 Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic intensity with a probability >= 3% within 30 years hereafter. (Color-classified by intensity; pre-liminary calculation for only characteristic earthquakes of the major 98 active fault zones)
- Fig.13 Probability of suffering a ground motion with seismic intensity >= 6 Lower within 30 years here-after. (Preliminary calculation; for only subduction earthquakes except Assumption of the Tokai Earth-quake)
- Fig.14 Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic intensity with a probability >= 3% within 30 years hereafter. (Color-classified by in-tensity; preliminary calculation, for only subduction earthquakes excluding Assumption of the Tokai Earthquake )
- Fig.15 Probability of suffering a ground motion with seismic intensity >= 6 Lower within 30 years here-after. (Preliminary calculation; for earthquakes except ' "characteristic ones of the major 98 active fault zones" and "subduction earthquakes" ' )
- Fig.16 Map of regions suffering a ground motion >= a fixed seismic intensity with a probability >= 3% within 30 years hereafter. (Color-classified by intensity; preliminary calculation, for earthquakes except ' "characteristic ones of the major 98 active fault zones" and "subduction earthquakes" ' )
- Fig.17 Earthquakes that possibly cause shocks with seismic intensity >= 6 Lower within 50 years hereafter with respect to Spot A
^{*}and Spot B^{*}, and their weights (Contribution factor; preliminary calculation)