Linas.P

Is this question, statement or what? What you want to know exactly? Technically possible, practically complicated. Generally would be interesting project, I would like to do it myself, but I don't have place or time to do it.

For Iran is draw at best... some of the stats you mentioned are interesting, but quite far away from being indicative of "hidden pro-western" sentiment. It remains to be seen, but my bet would be that iran will remain on the side of china and ruzzia in short-to-midterm future. So you are using chinese stats, because if you wouldn't be using them then you wouldn't say BYD overtook Tesla, because the didn't... Also BYD isn't a Tesla (not to say Tesla is great company, if anything I would predict they will be bankrupt in less than decade)... it is like saying Casio overtook Rolex in volume of watches that they have sold... no sorry wrong analogy... because Tesla is not Rolex, Tesla is more like Casio.. and BYD is more like Ching-chong-chow watch company which makes cars primarily for Chinese market. Their sales are primarily Chinese market and therefore the numbers are outright fake. Apparently they sold 270,000 cars outside of China (mostly poor developing countries) which is the number I trust, yet they state that is mere 3% of their total production... meaning they claim to have made 9 million cars total. This being Chinese numbers I would say it would be safe to divide it in half twice. Not to mention they not exclusively making BEVs even if they claims they have sold twice as many BEVs as Tesla. Also I know and I understand that some models of BYD looks to good to be true, but you guessed it - that is because they are not true. I have been in BYD factory and I have seen the cars they make (be it in 2018 and I assume things have changed since then), they look very nice from few metres away, but they are made of trash, literally fall to pieces in days of use. The only real value of BYD is their ownership of foreign car companies, the china business will always remain domestic only, maybe some other poor countries, but it will never meet our standards (this statement may age badly). China has strong central "government" (dictatorship) with strong central planning policies, so if they want to build 10 gazillion solar power stations, or billions of BEVs they can simply decide and do it and then report whatever they like. That doesn't make them advanced or green, if you thought greenwashing is bad in the west then it looks almost funny in China. Corruption is rampant, so when they say they built whatever million of something, then realistically 50% was never built and 50% of remaining 50% was defective and then 50% of remaining 25% failed within days of running. This applies to everything and brings us nicely on absolutelly 100% fake BYD sales figures. They not overtook shaite - they build EVs and park them in the fields to rot. It is all centrally planned, they been told to beat Tesla by government and they did it ON PAPER. Those cars were not sold, some of them probably were not even built. Also beating Tesla in sales volumes is kind of irrelevant fact, Tesla sales volumes are irrelevant, so what that they beaten Tesla? When they going to beat Toyota, VW Group in validated and accurate sales figures outside of china that is going to count. I can also invent any number myself, but it does not make it true. That is before even considering that EVs aren't even good for environment (my personal opinion) and current generation EVs will soon be obsolete massive piles of toxic waste. So china might be leading in some thing, but they are not necessarily good things. Honestly - you have way too much faith in China and non-sensical stats they provide. The whole country is backwards, culturally the people are medieval, it would have taken them 50 years to catch-up with the west and that was before they started making leaps backwards due to deranged authoritarian regime which wants to control power at any cost. Now final thing regarding China... which could look like I am contradicting myself here - our governments sadly fails to curtain their regime influence and we may end-up too dependant on them. Sadly they remain too convenient and profitable to do business with that we still look past things like genocide happening there... and they with their centrally run dictatorship are more efficient than us and may catch-up or even overtake us if we let them. So they not looking for "investment", they have already secured it and Microsoft has few billions to burn anyway. Yeah makes sense. Most of my shorter posts are written by AI already which impersonates my style of writing quite well, I just adjust it slightly and it is good to go. It is both far more advanced that people think... and far more dumber that people thing. Although much is to do with artificial limits added. For example Chat GPT was amazing when it launched and now it is barely useable, because they basically castrated it and created so much rules preventing it from working properly that 9 times out of 10 I get answer - "I’m sorry, but I can’t assist with that. Let’s move on to a new topic."

Seems like any solution that would solve all the issues... my view - if with 40s technology we managed to solve nuclear fission (not even we, maybe 5% of world scientists in US), then I can't believe with todays technology we can resolve nuclear fusion. However, the funding is just not there.

It is always old men that are thinking long term... just the way it is. Not necessarily that I disagree with you, but for each of your point I can play devils advocate... Why do you think Iran's secular democracy would be pro western? Or why do you think it would be democracy, it may as well just be another form of dictatorship? In short - fall of current dictatorship is most likely to be replaced with another dictatorship, not democracy and there is very little reason for any form of government to be pro-western there. I just can't see the reasoning behind this claim. Secondly - I hope you not using China's own stats for their adoption or readiness for anything? Because if you do, then I sadly need to inform you they are ahead of nothing, all their stats are made-up, they don't make as many EVs as they claim and those that they make are rotting in the massive fields because they either do not work, or nobody wants them, or they fail as soon as somebody tries to use them. All this green revolution in China are totally made-up story. And whatever little they have is all stolen technology, they haven't invented anything meaningful since probably year 900, when they figured out how to make gun-powder. Also I will believe that batteries can be made with 70% less lithium when I see them. I may be old fashion, but I am not into religion and EVangelism is a religion, sadly scientific journals seems to be penetrated with that nowadays. To be clear here - I am not saying it didn't happen, they may have found a way to make battery with 70% less lithium by using AI, however that is not the same as saying "they are ready to make that battery using mass production methods at anytime soon". Now I am sure such article as always says "we have working prototype and in 12 month we will start pilot of the technology, INVEST HERE!", but so far I keep seeing these claims times and times again for decades and billions invested and lost, but no working product. So needless to say I am sceptical.

I am with you on this, Hamas may be terrorist organisation who committed or are committing terrorist acts, but Israel overall policy for Palestine and generally Arab minority in the country is that of genocide. Overarching goal is to either eradicate people, or eradicate their culture whereas overtime "2 state solution" will not be needed as there will be no such people as Palestinians. Also it is kind of hard to accused Palestinians of anything considering they are living in open air concentration camp for decades now... and the only reason Israel can get away with this is memory of WW2 and holocaust. Kind of ironic that people who should know the best are the first ones to forget. Now that said - it is quite far from the topic of iran proxies and chinese response. I know that attacks on shipping is in response to Israel's invasion of Palestine, which is in response of Hamas terrorist attack, but we need to understand that Palestinians and their cause and Israel is really just as side story to larger Geopolitical gamble. ruzzia, iran and china are generally interested in destabilising west, ruzzia desperately needed to open new fronts, they did it in ex-french colonies to distract Europe/EU as France's military is big part (note France's support is nowhere the top of the list for Ukraine, France really playing minor role, even Germans who were really slow are now way ahead), then Israel was just what was required to compromise US resolve. I know now there are many issues, but war in Israel marked the point where US could not agree to any more aid to Ukraine. And now iran and houtis attacks on shipping is just wider destabilising actions, they need to be looked at in this wider context. Then suddenly it becomes clear why china isn't really worried about it, because it works out for their general strategy.

Sadly, there are no simple solutions for that, no "silver bullet" - practice and experienced is the only answer... but in UK there is nowhere to get that. So option 1 - get some winter driving experience, there is training for that abroad, also one can go for winter holidays more often, there advanced courses (although they may be focused on wet driving/aquaplaning in UK, but still useful). Option 2 - not to drive. That is genuinely workable option with UK having maybe 2 days per year of winter it is doable (I know I deliberately taking pssss here, but winter days are few enough to be able not to drive, it is genuine option). 3rd is not really an option in my view - but if one has to drive, like they went to meet family up north, it was 9C, then suddenly out of nowhere there is blizzard and it is -5C at night when they have to go back... and they have to do it because tomorrow they are going for long planned holidays. Then keeping distance, driving slow and taking extra care is the only way. It is not an option, because it is no point of being "mindful" or being "careful" if one fundamentally does not know what to look for. Sorry to say, but most British drivers do not know what they looking for in slippery conditions, that is not criticism it is just a fact and result of generally mild weather in UK. To be mindful of danger you need to know exactly how to deal with it. It is like saying to person "go pick-up that snake", we all know that snakes are poisonous, quick and can bite - still that does not help at all in picking-up the snake. So same with driving on slippery roads - one needs to know how to drive in those conditions and practice it, it is not enough to know it is dangerous. One thing NOT to do - get winter tyres and act like it is summer. Sadly, this is in my experience most common thing people do, not because they are stupid, not because they are not careful, but because with lack of real-life experience people just don't know what they looking for, they think they have prepared they don't all the steps on "top 10 tips winter driving list from Sunday Times", but they don't understand they simply don't have skills and experience to deal with situations they will encounter. Tyres gives you nothing if you don't know how to use them, may even give false sense of safety until it is too late. I am not saying don't get winter tyres, or not put -40C screen wash (by the way the thing is horrible if you driving on motorway at -10C), or not keep extra distance, but with all that preparation one still have to always default to option 3, unless they have completed option 1. How to prepare car for winter, that is separate topic - I like to use some lubricant on the rubbers just not to get them frozen overnight. Other useful thing - if google says it will take 15 min to drive somewhere, just double that and add 30 minutes on top. First of all you need to prepare car after the night (if it was outside), warm it-up first, properly for like 10 minutes, clean it properly, not just little slot on windscreen. Obviously, having right tools helps, keeping car indoors or under the cover even better. Driving Lexus I found that lifting wipers is pointless as all of my cars had heated windscreen, but if you don't have it, then lift the wipers when you park. All this prep takes time, hence just blanket extra 30 min for any trip, because last thing you want to do in winter is rushing. General mechanical prep - noting special, tyres should be good, should be same, should be at the right pressure (in winter pressure could be lower, but must be even), all the fluids should be right and to the right level. Small note on winter screenwash, -10C, -15C, maybe even -25C are alright, but when you get into real winter screenwash with -40C it is alcohol based and alcohol tends to evaporate, so if you driving in real winter (-20C or such) and you try to use it at speed it will internally freeze out of the nozzle and makes amazing icicles, so you need to slow down, ideally nearly stop before using it, but if you doing 70 on motorway, it will freeze. Also remember -10C, - 50C whatever, that is not a problem. Worst temperature is -0C, or let's say between ~ +1C and -1C. That is when you get black ice and that is when no tyres helps. Above that is just wet, any tyres will handle that reasonably well, once everything freezes everything is evenly slippery and below -5C actually dry, but that temperature around 0C is most dangerous. Aslo you can definitely see black ice if you know what you looking for, if not sure then slow down to relatively slow speed, make sure you have plenty space in front and behind you and start braking increasingly suddenly and you will figure out right away how slippery it is and at what point your car loses grip, it is good test to do if you not sure how slippery it is or hoe well your tyres can cope with it. 2 weeks ago I was driving for a week in ~ -10C-26C for a week with RAV4 hybrid (fake-AWD) and brand new, but crappy winter tyres. It was rather scary how bad were those winter tyres, they looked good, but they were unpredictable, obviously being new car with all safety systems it was alright. Today I just got back from snowboarding where rental company failed me in providing "winterised" car, paid extra 90 euro for winter tyres and found Michelin PS4* on the car, then they gave me snow socks as "solution", which is not exactly the same. However, I must say PS4* were amazing, despite -10C and very dodgy mountain roads. I don't know if it was the * (star - BMW special fitment) that made a difference or it was something to do with BMW 4GC which despite being RWD only handled slippery mountains roads like a champ, but I had great time. Did car lost grip - yes of course it did, it was performance summer tyres on icy mountain roads, but it was always predictable and controllable ride. It is true that getting up the mountain is always safer than getting down the mountain (which you can as well consider tip), but I didn't have issues either direction.

I think that is kind of the point as to why China sits on side-lines. It does hurt them in short term, but in long term their strategy is to destabilise "the west". So they are alright with Iran backing houtis and can accept little bit lower exports, also let's not forget - this creates shortage and it is buyer who bares the additional costs. I guess in long term it may reduce their export volumes, but short term it is just extra cost for Europe. Also Europe is likely able to pay that higher cost, so it is win-win strategy wise, they hurt their geopolitical rivals whilst not losing anything at all themselves. Also it is known that houtis generally allow ruzzian ships past and I assume same applies to China bound ships, obviously controlling terrorist organisation is hard, so eventually they will target some wrong ship, but 1 ship from 1000s isn't that big of a deal for china. Answer is simple - economist ties with dictatorships does not prevent wars, I would argue it makes them more likely. Same like spectacular failure of German policy towards the ruzzia, same here - china is totalitarian state, any trade with us they going to exploit and use it as leverage to undermine us. So we should stop looking into precedent of European integration, the only reason trade prevents wars in Europe is because Europe is democratic, no democratic government ever going to sacrifice economy over some stupid war, but dictatorships will. I guess point I am trying to make - we should start sanctioning china now, and cutting our economic ties now, not when they invade Taiwan or somebody else. Because all this globalisation and trade for them means - more money to arm and more opportunities to get necessary technology for war. Sure there was time when china was liberalising and becoming more democratic (if we can call it that), I think it was fair to give it a chance, same for ruzzia - in 90s they were becoming more democratic so they deserved the chance, the problem is that we are too slow to act when country turns totalitarian. That even applies to Europe itself, Poland just barely averted democratic collapse, Hungary is openly pro-ruzzian and EU/Europe/Combined West completely fails to act. Turkey is hardly an ally, yet they still in NATO playing both sides. That is why dictatorship looks at "us" and says "they are weak, we can manipulate them". Sadly, that is kind of true.

It was legitimately fast one, my guess would be RS 2.0, so it does 0-60 in 6.7s and as we know RC300h had no chances against it. It even had speed lines and little wing at the back (pointing upwards and giving it's rear a little bit of a lift as it suppose to), so that should have been my sign to back off. I still don't think speed and acceleration is acceptable for RC300h, but that is my opinion I guess.

UK insurance does not need to care - it is police job! Shipping companies do not care either - they rent you container, you fill the container, if you want to send it over to Africa empty - that is fine. It is border control problem and responsibility. That said - UK has no fffing border control, certainly not on the way out, it barely exists on the way in. So the way they see this - there is no harm if "illegal" stuff goes out, it is on the destination country to check. In theory that works, but when destination country is Nigeria or Angola we all know what happens. They are just corrupt and nothing get's checked, by the time car arrives there it already has all the forged documents or maybe not... maybe $100 is all the paperwork they need. UK is attractive country to steal from because we have loads of new premium cars in great condition, non-existent police response, non-existent boarder force. One can steal car from Germany, but apparently it is much harder to get German car out of EU, because Fontex apparently knows how to protect the borders and German Polizei takes no shaite for an answer. In EU there is no BS like in UK where they can catch person with tools, but without stolen car, or with stolen car and without tools and they can get away. No that doesn't work that way, if they get person with tools that is reasonable grounds for arrest, they will detain the suspect for say 72h and then comb thought his phones, chats, calls, locations etc. and track down what he was up-to. Also there are no excuse for driving stolen car like in UK, driving stolen car is in itself a crime. And I mean that is not only the case in German, most of Europe. Eastern Europe in particular, because they had a lot of issues with car theft, so by now they are very adept dealing with them. Also in most European countries there are not so much desirable cars - what are they going to steal? Dacia Sandero? Whereas UK is really heavy on particularly luxury SUVs. So yes - logic says LHD should be more desirable than RHD, but countries where the cars are going to have so little of traffic laws that it hardly matters, they are only technically driving on the right side of the road. Secondly LHD cars are much harder to steal and to export, as such I assume they are much more expensive to buy and therefore not as desirable, but UK is kind of soft spot really, with lenient laws, high burden to charge for car theft, police that isn't really interested in investigating car related crimes, people who happy just to claim on insurance etc. It is just many different issues in one.

They tried ironing it out for as long as I can remember... so 8 years perhaps... still hit and miss. Also it is highly model specific, I am sure most of features works on RX, but they are just not correctly disabled on RC. Overall, it is kind of sad because RC is really the car I want to like, but Lexus just didn't put effort into it, they knew it will be low volume product and the car always felt unpolished in my opinion. Not in any fundamental way, but especially around features, technology, how it is integrated together - digital dash is perfect example, it literally offers limitless possibilities to show any information, show maps like in other cars, it is just matter of developing little gadgets to display it... but it is as basic as it gets, there is so little customisation possible that it seems they never bothered to even try. NX and RC does not get LFA style instruments, but they have just so much more options and inflation available there. This is sadly quite common i.e. confuse RC F-Sport with RC-F and it happens both ways. I don't mind it too much when some private seller lists RC300h F-Sport in RC-F section, but it clearly says 2.5L hybrid, but it really pisses me off when actual Lexus dealers makes this mistake and it is very common one at that. After all they are the people who should be experts on the car and if they can't tell RC-F from RC300h F-Sport, then it does not inspire confidence. Your one isn't even F-Sport, so I just don't understand why they made this mistake.

In that case yes - UX has taken hit and it is in demand, so likely won't depreciate much for some time.

Definitely recall, I said same thing elsewhere - right thing to do would be to recall every car, but it seems they are not biting that bullet yet. To fix issue properly I assume they need to replace ECU, reprogram it at very least, although I assume if it wasn't designed for encryption it is fundamental enough to warrant replacement. That is a lot of money. Other thing which may happen (and has happened), they may do it for US and leave UK to suffer, UK just isn't their key market and honestly they don't care what happens here in grand scheme of things, they have showed it times and times again over the years. The other problem - this is not considered safety issue so DVLA does not give a flying f... I still think this is consumer protection problem. This isn't individual car, or small number of affected cars... this is issue with ALL the cars for like 5 years period (actually it is broader than I thought, before Colin listed all affected cars, perhaps only saving grace - not all cars are attractive for thieves). On top of that - let's just face it, it didn't come from nowhere, Lexus already had security vulnerability with keyless entry, so they are not Tesla that is coming from nowhere and who didn't know what the "real life" looks like, they knew any vulnerability will be exploited by thieves, they not small company either (Toyota certainly isn't and this is system comes from Toyota, RAV4 is widely known to be one of the most affected cars due to easy access of wiring). So it is absolutelly inexcusable they that they have not considered every aspect of the system. Like engine start and immobilisers has to be isolated from the rest and it should be buried under panels etc. This isn't even new concept - if you tried accessing immobiliser even on old Lexus/ Toyota you would know that is 2 hours job with dash out and then you need to program them once done, which is another 30 minutes. It is just unthinkable that they left CANBUS totally open and you can just plug into it and do whatever you like.

You got me confused here - so if I understood you correctly... you afraid of CANBUS vulnerability, but you looking to replace it with UX, which has same vulnerability? Or is it because Lexus offers some sort of protection for UX, but not ES?

That is obviously almost all IS300h and maybe handful of IS200t.

Also in many countries that receive such cars there is a view that Europeans were colonists (which we were), so buying cars that was stolen from some sucker is morally sound and justified (even if that sucker may be their relative trying to build their life in UK). My point - I don't think the fact that car is stolen detracts much of buyers in countries where they are sold. Maybe it is not explicitly advertised, but I am sure nobody have any illusions of how the cars ended-up there.

I thought you car is red?

I get what you saying, but also - Lexus response was absolutelly unacceptable. As far as I know they haven't even admitted there is any fault. So sort of - "ok we learned a lesson at your expense, we promise to be better in future". And to be fair I don't blame Lexus too much, I think this should be some government body to chip in, like diesel gate. I don't know - some sort of consumer protection agency i.e. car brand left an major vulnerability, as result cars lost value, so they either compensate for that, take cars back or they fix it. When buying new NX I am pretty sure it does not say in sales brochure that your car comes equipped with major flaw which means any teenager can connect to your CANBUS under the bumper and override it in seconds. I guess sadly it is sort of grey area - everyone understand this is not how it suppose to be, but there is no specific law to say what to do and what are the rights of the parties involved, so this perhaps should be deal with class-action lawsuit type of deal, but in UK we don't have such legal mechanism. Also, I guess Lexus defence could be - "it is not our fault that UK has absolutelly shocking criminal situation and abysmal police support, cars are fine unless somebody maliciously attacks them". And that would be very true - in UK car crime is basically decriminalised, car thief has more protections than motorists just driving on the road, the way laws a laid out car thieve looks like some sort of vulnerable group. In the end of the day, flawed security design on Lexus side and total ignorance from police side leads into situation we have now - where you can't have a nice car because it will get stolen. And that is not only Lexus, I am sure we all seen how Bentleys, Ferraris and McLarens are being car jacked in the middle of the day in the centre of London. And as far as I know they don't have CANBUS issue, point is - police allows for thieves to get away, owners have no way of defending themselves either (no guns allowed), so thieves are getting more and more brazen with their craft in such power vacuum. Ohhh... and finally insurer, they are there just to drain last ounce of blood... few cars got stolen, say £2million write-off for them... so now they going to jack the prices for 10s of thousands of owners, and make 100s of millions out of it. Just nice excuse for profiteering.

I assume they just forge some documents locally and they still perhaps have some sort of Toyota dealer or whatever, so it is not much more complicated than replacing lost key. All that Lexus knows is that somebody with legitimate local ownership documents needs key, local staff probably accepts bribes and turns blind eye and pretend they didn't know it was not them who imported the car into the country. I guess in theory somebody can legitimately import the car from abroad, so there has to be way to get keys. Now sure Lexus/Toyota could start asking for VINs and start doing due diligence on every car, but there is nothing that can't be forged and especially if local staff is onboard it would be hard to pin down the thefts. I assume Lexus/Toyota just focuses on being car companies and leaves the theft for police to investigate. Long story short - they just get replacement keys.

Am I getting Nobel prize? for what? 😁

Not much to say - it is dependable car which can go far as you want. It is kind of obvious, but I would get best tyres I could, as it would be quite inconvenient to have blow out when doing 220km/h somewhere in Germany. Don't believe you need to cross any countries that require winter tyres on your way to Italy, but perhaps dropping in snow socks would not hurt if you planning to taka any mountain roads. Further, many countries will expect triangle and high wiz (France for sure). Also - I tend to do fluids before long trips, had few where I was traveling 4000-5000 miles in two weeks, going out with the oil which is already due for replacement would not be ideal for wear.

And reliability also plays the role here - not only IS is now comparatively old car with little value to be had, but also it is 100% reliable, so there is simply no demand for parts. I would assume many thieves that brake the the cars for parts do so with or as legitimate business later on selling the parts on places like ebay. But if car does not have any common problems, then all the parts are rather worthless. Take for example IS250 computers and ECU. They can be worth £1000, because that is how much dealership charges, but because they almost never fail you can get ECU for IS250 for £20, there is just no demand for used Lexus parts. Whatever get's worn are usually wear and tear components one would not get used anyway. So that also partially why I say reliable cars are of less interest. High-mileage also rarely matters for thieves, if they get car with 180,000 miles they still going to lie engine done only 40,000 - not exactly type of people with morale to be truthful about condition. Probably more relevant for selling whole cars in Africa, but again the market there is such that cars can be easily clocked and buyers will accept any car regardless, as long as it runs at all. My understanding is that the actual sucm that steals the cars gets set fee for doing it... like £2,000... maybe up-to £5,000 for some very expensive "special order" cars. So if car is worth less than £10,000 it is almost safe from theft, there is simply no margin that can be made on the car. Let's say IS300h is worth £10,000, certainly after theft some scratches, missing service history etc. it may not be worth that. £2,000 to get it stolen, £2,000 for all other expenses + risk related with type of work it is, likely weeks of hide and seek play between various hiding places and final sale price (because it has to be quick) of £8,000? Such car will be hardly worth anything, not to mention the profit probably needs to be split between multiple people, paying of their part to their leaders etc. I think - prime targets are Luxury SUVs with price tag between say £45k - £85k, not expensive enough trigger half of police force or have entire team working on recovering it, not too expensive to then sell in target market (Africa) and has enough value in it to cover the costs. RX/NX fits perfectly in that category.

Well, I guess if you put it that way, then yes - Lexus reliability is one of key marketing tools used (not sole, but certainly not irrelevant), so if Lexus wins on reliability survey, they obviously capitalise on that and some people may consider it when buying cars, thus to some small degree increasing volumes sold. The more popular is the model, the more in demand it is, the more likely it is to be stolen. So yes - reliability in that sense contributes. I guess the reason why I said reliable cars are less in demand is little bit contrived and not necessarily relevant to Lexus, but when it comes to theft for parts unreliability of certain cars sometimes makes them a target - something like BMW M3 and M5 bearing issues, where at some point there was strong demand for second hand engines and cars were likely stolen just for their engine as it was easy £10,000 flip. As for selling stolen vehicles... very rarely whole vehicle is sold in UK (or the country where it was stolen in general), as far as Europe is concerned I would say that is almost never the case. Simply because in Europe/UK we have robust enough systems where such car would be found out sooner or later. If the car as a whole stays in country, then it would be re-bodied/re-VINed, which was the case for more performance/track oriented cars, not sure if it is still popular, but back in the day things like Lotus Elise, BMW M3, Porsche 911, Boxer were in this camp - basically car get's crashed on track, insurance does not cover track use, so there is unreported car shell with documents that could be legitimised. But that would not apply to Lexus much, RC-F perhaps, but the yare just too rare to become an industry. So my guess would be - all whole cars are exported out to Africa... and for that reason buyer neither cares where the car came from, nor really benefits from lower price and with local standards it would be acceptable that new to them car comes with ripped off bumper and some hanging wires. I doubt thieves care to even fix anything, it may be something seller in Africa deals with, but basically there would be complete separation from sucm in UK that steals it and sucm in Africa that buys it and the buyer themselves. So it isn't as much of "double edge sword" in my view. As for selling cars for parts - at that point it also does not matter... Even CANBUS weakness overall in my opinion does not matter - NX/RX are stolen because they are in demand, if not for CANBUS issue, there would be something else. Worst case scenario they could come and just tow the car away, or hijack it... sure CANBUS is convenient, but not the only way to get the car. I remember anecdotal story about BMW X6 when it came out and BMW right away expected that cars will have huge challenge when it came to thieves (I believe it was in ruzzia), so they had individually codded keys with factory immobiliser which at the time was challenging to steal. Thieves solution - they forged the ownership documents, paid dealership employee a bribe and sent them to BMW factory to get the keys. Few weeks later they got the keys and simply drove the cars away like their own.

I think CANBUS issue only exist for specific models with headlights ECU, at least that is my understanding of the issue, so later IS may be similar, but if they don't have that particular type of ECU which has undecrypted CANBUS going to the lights they are fine. IS/RC/GS being older platform I would assume they don't have this issue, even in facelift. Only later (~2018+) ES/NX/RX have it, also perhaps UX and LBX, but being lower end models maybe they didn't get such "advanced" features, also I am not sure if LC is affected by same or similar issue. Maybe being flagship LC got more advanced headlight features ahead of other models (~2016?). But again that is the issue with ES - thieves do not care how easy the car is to steal, if nobody needs it they don't need it, so there must be something in ES that interests them, or maybe there is true unknown demand for ES? Maybe middle east? who knows... As for insurers, I think they will always overprotect themselves, they do not care which particular model is vulnerable, remember they do not care about consumers, they care about making as much profit as possible. So in their mind perhaps - any Lexus 2018+ is high risk, any BEV regardless of the model is fire risk, any BMW 3 or 1 series is risk of idiot owner... so they just group those cars in these blanket black and white categories and they really don't care to find out what exactly is the issue. Insurance being mandatory it means they just found and excuse to increase their profit by 50%, why waste the opportunity? Now naive between us would think insurers are really advanced and they get expert opinions etc. because overpricing insurance would mean losing to competitor who done more research and can insure the model that doesn't have particular issue for more, thus louring the client away. That is just not the case - demand for insurance is inelastic, one is legally forced to have it no matter the cost, there isn't real competition between insurers either, they are all just in for bloodbath. So it is kind of simple - as soon as statistically significant number of claims happens on some vehicle for them to notice, they just blanked that model or brand with higher insurance, I really doubt there is much of sophistication or that they actually care what and why.

Yeah - sorry, regarding service plan. I have no experience with 5 years, but what usually happens to me - I come to do service and they ask me if I would like to take service plan out, at which point they usually offer discount if I prepay for 2-3 years. Example - let's say 60k service is £685, when it comes to pay for it service manager would say - maybe you would be interested to take service plan instead for something like £805 if you prepay today, which which work out cheaper than £685 major + £265 minor obviously. At least that was my experience maybe 5 years ago and I am not sure if Lexus still offers such discounts since Relax Warranty was introduced and Essential Care was discontinued.

That is interesting idea, but definitely not... More reliable cars makes them LESS, not more attractive to thieves... although if I would be thief I would dread to go near Range Rover, if not for fire risk, then for the risk of getting caught, when the piece of shaite inevitable brakes down... Lexus cars increasingly became more interesting for thieves, because Lexus is genuinely competitive make when it comes to SUVs, they are genuinely sought after and sells relatively well for Lexus. Secondly - because Lexus (and Toyota) messed-up royally with CANBUS security. Totally unacceptable, both in terms of not considering it, but also in terms of response - the only way here is to recall ALL the cars and encrypt CANBUS (which I assume would require some new computers to be added/replaced and it would be major cost), but they won't do it, so they have pretty much abandoned owners in this regard. That said - we need to understand CANBUS issues is not what makes cars attractive to thieves - they don't care what car it is, they don't steal the cars and then try to figure out how to sell them and how much it is worth. Car thieves simply get salary for doing it, they get told what car is needed, they don't just randomly steal cars based on their liking, nor even based on how easy it is to do it. So it means somebody is asking for NX and RX, either part of whole cars... I am baffled that ES is being stolen, but that is probably my issue, I just don't understand who would want ES and they are not even that popular anyway. My only guess would be - ES300h shares a lot of parts with NX300h, so perhaps that is just an impact from NX being in high demand.