Steve_S

The first and third largest battery producers for EVs are indeed currently Chinese (CATL and BYD). Second and fourth are South Korean (LG) and Japanese (Panasonic). CATL and BYD are currently technologically ahead of their competitors because they put more investment in. There is, however, massive investment now going on the West in this area in an attempt to catchup. In the US it is seen as both strategically important at the government level and economically important to companies like Telsa to localise and vertically integrate production as much as possible. The West just needs to learn to compete again.

So, let's look at South Korea, a country known to have one of the most ambitious plans with regards hydrogen. According to their government roadmap they aim to have around 450 public hydrogen fuelling stations by 2025 and around 1200 by 2040. Sound impressive? Well, 1200 fuelling stations is around 10-15% of the number of available Gas (petrol/diesel) stations available in South Korea now. So, their "ambitious" plan will take 17 years to reach a point where they can still only provide around 10-15% of the fuelling infrastructure available to ICE drivers today. Note, that in the meantime the plan in SK is to reach 0.5 Million EV chargers by 2025 with a mix of around 85% to 15% of slow to fast chargers. i.e. over 150 fast chargers and almost 1000 slow chargers per hydrogen station by 2025. They are well on their way to achieving that. So, the South Korean versions of our hydrogen advocates do at least have some prospect that a hydrogen powered vehicle could make a sensible buying choice in the near future.....depending on where he/she lived of course. The roadmap appears to favour certain areas in SK. But if you are seriously interested in the question of which will be the dominant drive train technology in the future it is pointless basing that on today's current technology as some sort of benchmark. You need to get your crystal ball out and look about 15 years in the future because it will take at least that amount of time for the hydrogen infrastructure to catch up to a point where it will significantly impact the mass market. Call it 10 years if you want to be super optimistic. A lot will happen in 10-15 years (a lot is going to happen in the next 5), especially with regards battery technology.

True, but their announcement also contained claims of incremental improvements in non solid state batteries which are perfectly in line with what can be expected from other battery types in the near future so the trajectory of improvement in the industry is continuing irrespective of what Toyota claim. And even with SS there was a recent paper indicating they may have cracked one of the hurdles but I don't have that to hand at the moment.

I find it very unlikely that green hydrogen will prove to be significantly cheaper in terms of cost per mile for fuelling a transport fleet than direct charging of BEVs. Water may be abundant as a source for green hydrogen but it is abundant for a reason. Hydrogen and Oxygen form strong bonds and it takes considerable energy to split them via electrolysis. Many easily accessible sources show that it would take more bulk energy generation capacity to fuel your fleet via green hydrogen than direct charging of an equivalent number of BEVs, not less. Less well known is that fact that hydrogen released into the atmosphere can indirectly lead to elevated levels of methane which is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. This may not be a showstopper but it is likely that the industry will need to improve its gas leakage standards above current levels otherwise the gain from using green hydrogen will be offset by this effect. This will add to the costs. There may indeed be a useage case for green hydrogen in transport. Time will tell. But don't assume that fuel costs will be a factor. Meanwhile, Toyota are clearly hedging their bets. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-market-next-gen-battery-evs-2026-built-by-new-ev-unit-2023-06-13/

Not many I'd imagine. The natural Toyota alternative to the IS or GS is the Camry which is no longer sold here either. They will have gone to the German premium brands.

The overall ownership of a brand is not relevant in this context. It is what the products of that brand represent to the consumer. So yes, just because Bentley are part of the VAG group does not mean you can use the same label for them. I may be being predantic but words have meaning and there is a big philosophical difference between premium and luxury. Lexus are incrementally improved Toyotas in the sense of historically having better materials, improvements in some mechanicals and a more cohesive design language. They were aspirational vehicles for the (hate to use this term but can't think of a better one) middle classes that had a bit of extra money to splash out on something with a bit better perceived quality than what the hoi polloi were driving. I would argue that historically brand engineering is exactly what they were about. If you are arguing that there is now no quality difference between Lexus and Toyota models well, fair enough, I haven't closely compared recent models. But, there has always been overlap between the top of the consumer brands and the bottom of the premium brands and I don't see anything really different now.

Lexus is not a "luxury" car brand. It is a premium car brand serving the same relationship with Toyota as Audi do with VW. Bentley and RR are luxury brands and are what Jaguar aspire to be now they have decided they can't cut it in the premium segment. Audi have entry level models designed for younger buyers in mind and to generate brand loyalty. Perhaps some Audi drivers of their higher end models care about dilution of the brand but the company doesn't seem to care. Unless you want Lexus to go the way of Jaguar and only appeal to an elitist niche neither should you. Whether the LBX proves to be a decent car or not time will tell.

The RZ looks nice enough and the drivetrain capacity and efficiency looks to be at least competitive with the likes of Audi without being industry leading. But, it is above my price range and I get the impression that Lexus is pushing even more upmarket in the same way that Mercedes and Jaguar are going. I guess it will be interesting to see if they replace the UX300e with an entry level model when the time comes or just bin it. I've been reading a bit of EV forum chatter and not unexpectedly reliability issues seem to focus on basic software reliability rather than mechanical which is to be expected. It is a technology undergoing a lot of transition. Electric Classic cars are one of several companies in the UK doing conversions (I quite enjoy the TV series based around them). If I had the money I would quite like a converted 1970's Citroen DS matching the retro Buck Rogers design with a modern drive train.

I believe the Churchill quote most relevant to some of this thread is ‘Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…’ He was a meddling old bugger and got a lot of things wrong but he got that one right. BTW, at the 2019 UK general election if you wanted to vote for a party that was NOT going to phase out ICE vehicles you would have had to pick one other than the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, SNP, DUP and the Greens. The only difference with the Conservatives was that they did not specify a date (but would consult on the "earliest date" etc.). They chose that date soon after being elected. Presumably Elon (or is it Bill?) got to them too 🤔

On long range trucks I guess the market will tell us in the next few years as Tesla are finally about to start producing their large semi-truck from their new Texas plant.

Thanks Colin. Cheers.

Linas, I am not really a forum debater. Generally I just join forums like these to get help on specific questions that arise like recent issues with my 12V battery. I found it refreshing that your last post especially indicates you know there is a problem that needs solving and that over-consumption is a serious contributor to that. Thanks for that. It's nice to find another "leftie" like me on something like a LEXUS forum 🙂 But, I can't help being a bit picky on some of the numbers you are quoting. Organisations such as the US EPA, UK BEIS and the IEA provide numbers on the contribution of passenger vehicle road transport to total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and they come out at about 15% globally or a bit higher in the western world so I am curious where you get your 3% figure. All forms of transport in total is generally is a bit higher contributor than manufacturing. For example, in 2019 in the US 29% GHG contribution came from all forms of transport (58% of that 29% is small road vehicles...dominated by passenger cars) and 23% for industry according to the EPA). On that basis you get a better understanding of why Western governments target passenger vehicle transport as part of their GHG emissions policy. For the record, I don't think BEVs are the only solution.

So I had to jump start my car last weekend after it had been sitting a few days. I charged it backed up then I drove it again for an hour on Wednesday. This afternoon (Saturday) I checked the voltage across the 12V battery (before starting it) and it read 10V. When I tried to start it it flashed the usual hybrid shift to p warning for a second before it did actually manage to start up on its own accord this time. But anyway, a new battery is required I guess.

On the topic of EV range consumers can look at the EV database linked below which gives estimated ranges in cold and mild conditions for every model listed. Obviously these are estimates. Note that "cold" is defined as -10C and "mild" as +23C. For example, the UXe combined cycle range is given as 120 miles (cold) to 165 miles (mild). I guess in practice most EV UK EV users won't see this variation as UK average monthly temperature varies from about ~ +4C to ~ +17C though the year. ev-database On the more contentious topics discussed it would be absolutely spiffing if I could put one of the many possible varieties of net-zero-carbon synthetic fuel into my car in most garage forecourts. I would even be willing to pay a premium to do so (just as millions of people are prepared to pay something of a premium to drive past and current EVs). But I can't today and am not likely to do so in the near future despite people pulling links to various pilot schemes around the world. The reason for this is not technical, it is lack of previous and serious investment by the fossil fuel industry to make this happen in a timely manner. By timely I mean on timescale that would have enabled the fossil fuel industry to present a viable alternative strategy to an outright ban on new ICEs. But they didn't and by their (let's be kind) lack of foresight they have just helped open the door to a competitor technology and industry that is going to capture a significant part of their customer base. But, you know this is a democracy. All they need to do is construct such a viable strategy for the mass roll-out of such such fuels before the next general election and persuade one of the main political parties to adopt it as a reason to reverse the ban. Then you can vote for them. Cheers 🙂

There is no way that hydrogen will be a viable fuel source that meets mass market needs for small vehicle transport in the medium term (by medium term I basically mean pretty much the lifetime of most people on this forum). It is yet to be proven that providing green hydrogen (i.e. not produced from fossil fuels) is viable at commercial scale and no-one will provide the necessary supply infrastructure to compete with BEVs on these timescales. It will likely always be niche. Unless ICE cars are banned outright there is no reason why everyone on this forum can't continue to drive one until pretty much the end of your life. You just won't be able to buy a new one and your running costs will just get more and more expensive. Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries that don't use cobalt are already being made at commercial scale and being used in BEVs. I get the allure of the ICE. I was never a total petrolhead but I dabbled with classics and Alfa Romeos at times. But whenever I give anyone a lift in my IS300h they almost always complement the fact it is quiet and smooth. The sound of an engine is irrelevant to most people. I will transition over in a couple of years.