Extended warranty is often about what can you afford at any point in time - so could you afford a few thousand pounds for a repair bill tomorrow as that is what something relatively "minor" could cost on cars like a Lexus. Paying for the extended warranty is paying for peace of mind that those bills will be covered more than whether you eventually save money or not. I ran a BMW 528i to over 200,000+ miles from new over 10 years and always had it dealer serviced until the end but with no extended warranty. A few repairs were needed which were also done by the dealer - nothing too serious but each bill was a large one. However over that period I did probably save over buying the extended warranty but it was a close thing. Also had a Honda Accord that went to 160,000 over 10 years - again no extended warranty and serviced and repaired at an independent after the first three years. Had similar reliability to the BMW (some things had to replaced though that I wouldn't have expected to break) but as they were repaired at an independent garage the cost of repairs was probably lower than the extended warranty would have cost though may have cost more had I had the repairs done at a main dealer. In both cases though I was crossing my fingers when something went wrong that it wouldn't be a bank breaker! I bought my first Lexus IS 300h 12 months ago from a Lexus dealer - it was two years old with 40,000 miles when I purchased it I and will put around 12,000 a year on it. My plan is to keep it for at least three years and although they do seem to have a very good reliability reputation I decided that in this case it was worth buying the extended warranty for an extra couple of years to run through to it being 5 years old, especially given the hybrid elements, for total peace of mind. The extended warranty does need it servicing at Lexus dealers, which I had planned to do anyway, and so I have also bought a service plan to see me through the same time frame. It's an on-going payment but small(ish) amounts and I know everything is now taken care of for a couple more years, including full Euro breakdown cover which is quite a bit to do independently for full Euro cover, and will review again when it is 5 years old.