Fuel panic!

[flotsam]

There's NO WAY the grid could take it if everyone bought an EV. GLA have just banned new properties because they say the grid can't currently take it. The Telegraph has just reported that people who installed heat pumps have seen electricity bills as high as £30,000! NOT A TYPO.

It looks as though we're being given a bum steer. Battery powered cars and heat pumps will be the betamax.

[LenT]

14 hours ago, toffee_pie said:

Lies lies lies, these folks struggling to put food on the table it seems 

Shell and British Gas owner announce billions in profits as UK faces cost of living misery

Centrica, the parent company of British Gas, recorded an increase in operating profits to £1.34billion, while Shell saw its profits hit a new all-time high of £9.5billion

Shell saw its profits hit a new all-time high of £9.5billion in the second quarter.

That smashes the oil giant's previous record quarterly profit of £7.5billion racked up in January to March this year

I suppose it’s no surprise that statements like these make no mention of the fact that only a year or so ago, the oil industry was announcing record LOSSES.  

Simplistic statements don’t really further an understanding of the complexity of oil and gas production and the investments that these same companies are making into the development of alternative energy sources.  Nor do they acknowledge the part played in global disruptions that raise prices in ways beyond the control of the energy producers.

But in the hunt for scapegoats no stone is left unthrown!

For the sake of some balance, I thought these articles presented a more nuanced approach.  They are US-based but the USA does represent one fifth of the total World’s energy consumption so the data has a global relevance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-isnt-as-rich-as-everybody-thinks-202513503.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHWxTbff1l4by-vS0ntBZtcz6nGgQY0iPRzt_DD6-dF2KaaeAKeKVrCVp3euyPqrjMzaNQyHmArwTnnbVOMhdXsLYkw2pM1zPRh3z6Ji7NdZNXwwTfpj81Zl_oOOwsDgBFe_RmIJtuEkL_4XqG5tWv4Fh5i8shBa6K-DlPswJrxs

https://www.convenience.org/Media/conveniencecorner/How-Much-Oil-Companies-Make-on-High-Gas-Prices

I doubt they’ll even be read by the committed conspiracist, but then why spoil a good prejudice?

[LenT]

On 7/22/2022 at 7:08 PM, dutchie01 said:

For all young readers out there this granddad had a DAF 44 a forty something years ago. The image of these cars was not too good, senior citizens and so on. Guess what it had a CVT gearbox connected to a 2 cylinder engine. I only drove it full throttle with the engine screaming at max revs until inevitably it blew up. It was a weird sensation then as it is now. The revs climb until a certain rpm stay there with the noise staying thesame but the car accelerates.

Many years ago I was writing ads for the new DAF66 with a rather superior 4-cylinder engine coupled to the Variomatic gearbox.

Daf gave me one to drive around for a while, which was an interesting comparison with the Lotus Elan I had at the time.

But I soon realised that it was a comfortable, reliable, efficient family car with a more than adequate performance.  Plus it had   the added simplicity of the Variomatic.  One lever that you pushed forward to go forward - and back to go back.

I realised that if we could get potential buyers to take an extended test drive, they might well appreciate  these qualities.  So we came up with the first Two Day Test Drive.  All the Dealers got a car to be loaned out to potential buyers for two days to drive anywhere they wished in the UK.

All the cars were rapidly booked out and - as I recall - well over half were converted into sales.  

It was an interesting demonstration that the needs of the ‘average’ motorist may not be reflected by the views of the enthusiasts!

[First_Lexus]

43 minutes ago, LenT said:

It was an interesting demonstration that the needs of the ‘average’ motorist may not be reflected by the views of the enthusiasts!

Amen!

[Malc]

and here we are, sensibilities beginning to return ......  Asda Sittingbourne Kent just now for the Honda Legend and E10 ... 176.7p a ltr  ....  cost to fill-up  £115.05  

no E5 tho' for my Ls400 which in all fairness is only 2/3rds empty 

Malc

[First_Lexus]

40 minutes ago, Malc said:

and here we are, sensibilities beginning to return ......  Asda Sittingbourne Kent just now for the Honda Legend and E10 ... 176.7p a ltr  ....  cost to fill-up  £115.05  

no E5 tho' for my Ls400 which in all fairness is only 2/3rds empty 

Malc

Asda are trying to steal a march on their rivals. Hopefully the start of a price war. They’ve now reduced petrol prices by 9p in a week.

Unfortunately the old saying “up like a rocket but down like a feather” seems to be very apt for fuel prices.

https://news.sky.com/story/asda-cuts-petrol-and-diesel-prices-to-help-motorists-save-money-12661418

[Bluemarlin]

18 hours ago, flotsam said:

There's NO WAY the grid could take it if everyone bought an EV. GLA have just banned new properties because they say the grid can't currently take it. The Telegraph has just reported that people who installed heat pumps have seen electricity bills as high as £30,000! NOT A TYPO.

It looks as though we're being given a bum steer. Battery powered cars and heat pumps will be the betamax.

I saw that. Apparently there's a block on new development proposals in parts of West London, potentially until 2035. That will be interesting as there's lot of development happening in that area, and demand increasing, due to the new Crossrail services.

I share your scepticism about heat pumps too but, whilst maybe not a typo, I'm not sure it's an entirely accurate claim. The Telepgraph article I saw stated that one homeowner was quoted £30,000 to install a new heat pump and radiators to his house.

Still very expensive, but not the same as a £30k electricity bill.

[First_Lexus]

36 minutes ago, Bluemarlin said:

maybe not a typo, I'm not sure it's an entirely accurate claim. The Telepgraph article I saw stated that one homeowner was quoted £30,000 to install a new heat pump and radiators to his house.

Still very expensive, but not the same as a £30k electricity bill.

On heat pumps, I had one in my last house. It was a new build, and the local developer (there were only ten houses) had installed them. Manufacture was Daikin. I lived with it for five years.

To be honest, it was utter rubbish. It was cheap to run, but that is the only positive thing I can say about it. It took ages to heat the house, and when it got really cold outside the fan unit froze up and then shut down for 30 minutes while it ran a defrost cycle. It was also hugely unreliable - luckily all under warranty.

Daikin came and told us all (myself and the other householders) that everything was working ‘within tolerance’ and that we just had to get used to it. Get used to getting cold they meant!

I’m now back in a house with gas central heating and - regardless of cost - I’m happier as I know I can rely on it to actually work!

 

[DavidCM]

40 minutes ago, Bluemarlin said:

I saw that. Apparently there's a block on new development proposals in parts of West London, potentially until 2035. That will be interesting as there's lot of development happening in that area, and demand increasing, due to the new Crossrail services.

Wait 'till the big national builders tweak the Government..they will soon jump on the shovel.

[Malc]

1 hour ago, Bluemarlin said:

that one homeowner was quoted £30,000 to install a new heat pump and radiators to his house.

not too expensive if Queenie is installing it all at Buck House .......... 

Malc

[Malc]

1 hour ago, First_Lexus said:

Asda are trying to steal a march on their rivals

I remember a few days ago watching Stuart Rose, the Chairman of ASDA saying as much . " watch this space for petrol deals soon "

SR was the retired Chairman of M&S and I guess he's fed up being in retirement mode and happy to put his brilliant skills into Asda ....  I rated him for sure, a very clever and astute guy

HOWEVER, let's remember that the " brothers " who own Asda are the petrol forecourt kings of GB in general .  so they should be getting the best price for their customers

Malc

[Bluemarlin]

2 hours ago, DavidCM said:

Wait 'till the big national builders tweak the Government..they will soon jump on the shovel.

Indeed. Perhaps the wheels just needed a little more oiling.

[DavidCM]

Yup.they are very good at threatening/leaning on people so they get their way.

[flotsam]

15 hours ago, Bluemarlin said:

I saw that. Apparently there's a block on new development proposals in parts of West London, potentially until 2035. That will be interesting as there's lot of development happening in that area, and demand increasing, due to the new Crossrail services.

I share your scepticism about heat pumps too but, whilst maybe not a typo, I'm not sure it's an entirely accurate claim. The Telepgraph article I saw stated that one homeowner was quoted £30,000 to install a new heat pump and radiators to his house.

Still very expensive, but not the same as a £30k electricity bill.

Nope, the Telegraph article, "Why heat pumps sum up all that is wrong with 'net zero'" claims: "In May, homeowners who had installed heat pumps reported seeing energy bills jump to as much as £30,000 after it emerged most radiators are too small to work with them." Not that I trust anything the Telegraph prints.

Although the government DOES want to keep we "useless eaters" poor, I'm guessing the real reason they promote heat pumps whilst providing only a teeny, tiny amount to subsidise their installation is purely because they want to appease the green lobby. These useless ^*%$s couldn't give a *%$& if you waste time, money and effort installing one. It's as Dominic Cummings said, they're useless morons with Oxbridge Humanities degrees.

 

[Boxbrownie]

I don’t see that being correct tbh, after all a heat pump is just a big fridge running in reverse (to put it simply) and I really don’t believe that even running a six or seven American fridge freezers (worst case maybe?) for a year is going to cost anywhere near £30K.

 

Heat pumps work well when they are the correct size for the building, the plumbing for the heating is designed from scratch, and most importantly the building needs to be of a very high thermal insulation, all these together and a heat pump is great, unfortunately there are too many cowboy (and big builders) who are installing them with little knowledge of what is really required.

And converting an existing boilered heating system to a HP is fraught with problems, and very unlikely to work as it should.

If I were building again from scratch I would install a HP, but it ain’t cheap although reasonably cost effective on a new build.

[mr2lad]

17 hours ago, Malc said:

and here we are, sensibilities beginning to return ......  Asda Sittingbourne Kent just now for the Honda Legend and E10 ... 176.7p a ltr  ....  cost to fill-up  £115.05  

no E5 tho' for my Ls400 which in all fairness is only 2/3rds empty 

Malc

Cheaper up here in N.E Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 

[First_Lexus]

4 hours ago, flotsam said:

It's as Dominic Cummings said, they're useless morons with Oxbridge Humanities degrees.

Would that be the same Dominic Cummings who attended Oxford and read Modern and Ancient History? 

[Bluemarlin]

4 hours ago, Boxbrownie said:

I don’t see that being correct tbh, after all a heat pump is just a big fridge running in reverse (to put it simply) and I really don’t believe that even running a six or seven American fridge freezers (worst case maybe?) for a year is going to cost anywhere near £30K.

I suspect the Telegraph conflated stories of high bills with the case of the guy who was charged £30k for a heat pump and radiator installation. Either way, on the face of it, at present it doesn't seem to be a very cost effective solution for people with existing boiler systems.

There also seems to be a lot of panic inducing confusion on the subject, so I did a quick read and here's what I came up with. Please do correct me if I've understood any of it wrongly.

1. Ban on installing natural gas boilers in 2025, in new build homes only.

2. Existing homes will still be able to keep their old gas boilers, and even buy new replacement ones.

3. From 2035 it is currently proposed (not law) that the installation of natural gas boilers will be banned.

4. Hydrogen boilers are also planned, and in 2028 (at the earliest) the government plan to introduce a 20% hydrogen blend into the gas supply. New boilers sold today should be hydrogen blend compatible, and replacement hydrogen boilers are apparently a similar price to equivalent gas boilers.

In summary, it seems that no-one will be forced to replace their existing system with a heat pump. New builds from 2025 will have them installed by default. If you have an old gas boiler and/or live in a home built before 2025, it seems you can still use that until at least 2028 and, if you wish you'll still be able to buy a new/replacement gas boiler. If you have a newer gas boiler (compatible with hydrogen), it appears that you'll be able to use that indefinitely.

That seems to me to be the current situation, although plans/proposals/whims might change over time.

 

[flotsam]

On 7/29/2022 at 7:44 AM, LenT said:

I suppose it’s no surprise that statements like these make no mention of the fact that only a year or so ago, the oil industry was announcing record LOSSES.  

Simplistic statements don’t really further an understanding of the complexity of oil and gas production and the investments that these same companies are making into the development of alternative energy sources.  Nor do they acknowledge the part played in global disruptions that raise prices in ways beyond the control of the energy producers.

But in the hunt for scapegoats no stone is left unthrown!

For the sake of some balance, I thought these articles presented a more nuanced approach.  They are US-based but the USA does represent one fifth of the total World’s energy consumption so the data has a global relevance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-isnt-as-rich-as-everybody-thinks-202513503.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHWxTbff1l4by-vS0ntBZtcz6nGgQY0iPRzt_DD6-dF2KaaeAKeKVrCVp3euyPqrjMzaNQyHmArwTnnbVOMhdXsLYkw2pM1zPRh3z6Ji7NdZNXwwTfpj81Zl_oOOwsDgBFe_RmIJtuEkL_4XqG5tWv4Fh5i8shBa6K-DlPswJrxs

https://www.convenience.org/Media/conveniencecorner/How-Much-Oil-Companies-Make-on-High-Gas-Prices

I doubt they’ll even be read by the committed conspiracist, but then why spoil a good prejudice?

Nope, he's right.

Crude oil peaked at $147 a barrel in July, 2008. Back then petrol was about £1.08 a litre.

With the exhange rate of the £ falling from just over $2 to $1.2 today and the 5p fuel duty cut, prices should be roughly the same today.

[flotsam]

5 hours ago, Boxbrownie said:

I don’t see that being correct tbh, after all a heat pump is just a big fridge running in reverse (to put it simply) and I really don’t believe that even running a six or seven American fridge freezers (worst case maybe?) for a year is going to cost anywhere near £30K.

 

Heat pumps work well when they are the correct size for the building, the plumbing for the heating is designed from scratch, and most importantly the building needs to be of a very high thermal insulation, all these together and a heat pump is great, unfortunately there are too many cowboy (and big builders) who are installing them with little knowledge of what is really required.

And converting an existing boilered heating system to a HP is fraught with problems, and very unlikely to work as it should.

If I were building again from scratch I would install a HP, but it ain’t cheap although reasonably cost effective on a new build.

As I posted, I don't trust the Telegraph. But some of us wot have more money than sense own multi-million £ mansions doncha know, so a £30,000 energy bill could be possible.

Many who install heat pumps have also installed solar panels as they knew beforehand that it would consume a lot of leccy. And isn't THAT what the government wants?

[Boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Bluemarlin said:

I suspect the Telegraph conflated stories of high bills with the case of the guy who was charged £30k for a heat pump and radiator installation. Either way, on the face of it, at present it doesn't seem to be a very cost effective solution for people with existing boiler systems.

There also seems to be a lot of panic inducing confusion on the subject, so I did a quick read and here's what I came up with. Please do correct me if I've understood any of it wrongly.

1. Ban on installing natural gas boilers in 2025, in new build homes only.

2. Existing homes will still be able to keep their old gas boilers, and even buy new replacement ones.

3. From 2035 it is currently proposed (not law) that the installation of natural gas boilers will be banned.

4. Hydrogen boilers are also planned, and in 2028 (at the earliest) the government plan to introduce a 20% hydrogen blend into the gas supply. New boilers sold today should be hydrogen blend compatible, and replacement hydrogen boilers are apparently a similar price to equivalent gas boilers.

In summary, it seems that no-one will be forced to replace their existing system with a heat pump. New builds from 2025 will have them installed by default. If you have an old gas boiler and/or live in a home built before 2025, it seems you can still use that until at least 2028 and, if you wish you'll still be able to buy a new/replacement gas boiler. If you have a newer gas boiler (compatible with hydrogen), it appears that you'll be able to use that indefinitely.

That seems to me to be the current situation, although plans/proposals/whims might change over time.

 

You have it as correct as it appears presently.

we installed a new gas boiler two years ago and it is compatible with hydrogen conversion as it stands, not that I believe it will happen anytime soon, maybe just maybe by 2030 who knows? 
The odd thing about people who say even a 10% hydrogen mix will cause problems and leaks forget that the old town/coal gas which used to flow through the old pipe work was around 50% hydrogen back then, I know we had leaks but…..

[LenT]

1 hour ago, flotsam said:

Nope, he's right.

About what, precisely?

That fuel prices rise faster than they fall should not come as a surprise.

But that wasn’t my point.  What I was suggesting is that simply grabbing a ragbag of newspaper headlines and presenting them in isolation, devoid of context or any sign of comprehending the complexities of the industry or the effects of global influences, does not make for a logical, considered appraisal of the situation.

What it does do is merely pander to prejudice.

I suspect that you haven’t read the articles to which I provided links - nor of course the other articles to which they are linked! If you had, you will see that those authors too have their dissenters.  But you will also see that there’s much more to the oil and gas industry than is conveyed by the glib, simplistic and judgemental posturing with which a vocal minority seek to entertain us.

I hope that makes it clearer.  🙂

[Malc]

2 hours ago, Bluemarlin said:

If you have an old gas boiler and/or live in a home built before 2025, it seems you can still use that until at least 2028

so my house built in the 1600's is ok ??   NO it's not lathe and plaster and wode, well, not on the surface anyway ....... getting those pesky radiator and gas pipes all over is sometimes an issue tho'  ............  my house is  " green  "  not being replaced for 400 years .......  so I'm allowed to offset my " green house " for the wonderful V8 4 ltr transportation I've allowed myself these past 20+ years in my now " green " car....  not replacing it with summat brand new thereby depleting the planet of rare minerals and electronic gadgetry in the build process of a brand new car

I'm a good guy ??  I'm GREEN and proud to be so, driving my non EV, my V8 4ltr limo petrol wonder

Malc

[Boxbrownie]

9 minutes ago, Malc said:

so my house built in the 1600's is ok ??   NO it's not lathe and plaster and wode, well, not on the surface anyway ....... getting those pesky radiator and gas pipes all over is sometimes an issue tho'  ............  my house is  " green  "  not being replaced for 400 years .......  so I'm allowed to offset my " green house " for the wonderful V8 4 ltr transportation I've allowed myself these past 20+ years in my now " green " car....  not replacing it with summat brand new thereby depleting the planet of rare minerals and electronic gadgetry in the build process of a brand new car

I'm a good guy ??  I'm GREEN and proud to be so, driving my non EV, my V8 4ltr limo petrol wonder

Malc

It’s good to keep things going.

 

As long as they don’t spew all that Co2,CO,NOx and PMs outside the local school/nursery etc etc 😉

Best to keep all that for the scrubbers at the power stations, cheer up Malc no one’s taking your V8 away.

[Bluemarlin]

35 minutes ago, Malc said:

so my house built in the 1600's is ok ??   NO it's not lathe and plaster and wode, well, not on the surface anyway ....... getting those pesky radiator and gas pipes all over is sometimes an issue tho'  ............  my house is  " green  "  not being replaced for 400 years .......  so I'm allowed to offset my " green house " for the wonderful V8 4 ltr transportation I've allowed myself these past 20+ years in my now " green " car....  not replacing it with summat brand new thereby depleting the planet of rare minerals and electronic gadgetry in the build process of a brand new car

I'm a good guy ??  I'm GREEN and proud to be so, driving my non EV, my V8 4ltr limo petrol wonder

Malc

If it was built in the 1600's I think you can still burn witches as a heat source 😃